BLP Work

Flu Forecasting Application

1 Week Ahead Calibration

2 Week Ahead Calibration

3 Week Ahead Calibration

4 Week Ahead Calibration

Seasonal Peak Percentage Calibration

Log Scores

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
BLP	-2.790912	-2.367625	-2.733827	-2.530975	-2.526200	-2.410654	-2.560840
cBLP	-2.817765	-2.377936	-2.725731	-2.559287	-2.514582	-2.444374	-2.580299
FSNetwork-TW	-3.058440	-2.381496	-2.787825	-2.518932	-2.661929	-2.470341	-2.618576
nBLP	-2.866347	-2.355575	-2.715417	-2.534816	-2.497912	-2.433698	-2.551861

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
BLP	-2.835144	-2.567359	-3.029395	-2.760507	-2.773858	-2.711629	-2.831470
cBLP	-2.808036	-2.605251	-3.044804	-2.832823	-2.762619	-2.728599	-2.872196
FSNetwork-TW	-3.076648	-2.547052	-3.069659	-2.796572	-2.898605	-2.774826	-2.889500
nBLP	-2.810745	-2.574944	-3.026565	-2.820460	-2.791288	-2.750728	-2.878615

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
BLP	-2.863147	-2.661256	-3.193908	-3.029739	-2.960465	-2.894112	-3.080921
cBLP	-2.943293	-2.702322	-3.212473	-2.992904	-2.910497	-2.892193	-3.087676
FSNetwork-TW	-3.186217	-2.709807	-3.269844	-2.992455	-3.121525	-2.996243	-3.115137
nBLP	-2.923631	-2.704428	-3.185558	-2.997130	-2.946291	-2.902189	-3.090303

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
BLP	-2.940561	-2.828981	-3.342656	-3.081426	-3.044287	-3.026788	-3.196549
cBLP	-3.012636	-2.816175	-3.326477	-3.087472	-3.014445	-3.047797	-3.209113
FSNetwork-TW	-3.250760	-2.850789	-3.431583	-3.151569	-3.269323	-3.133256	-3.207644
nBLP	-2.950294	-2.833083	-3.345369	-3.080071	-3.035638	-3.037302	-3.187011

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017
BLP	-2.216385	-2.349111	-2.516832	-2.201525	-2.396640	-2.832374	-2.862671
cBLP	-2.186683	-2.565973	-2.539540	-2.336337	-2.368495	-2.815353	-3.191539
FSNetwork-TW	-2.633966	-2.815722	-2.441660	-2.223697	-2.377471	-2.760355	-2.809229
nBLP	-2.175411	-2.456526	-2.492673	-2.113347	-2.291349	-2.745310	-3.048124

Model	2010/2011	2011/2012	2012/2013	2013/2014	2014/2015	2015/2016	2016/2017	Average
BLP	-2.729230	-2.554866	-2.963324	-2.720834	-2.740290	-2.775111	-2.906490	-2.769870
cBLP	-2.753683	-2.613532	-2.969805	-2.761765	-2.714128	-2.785663	-2.988164	-2.797679
FSNetwork-TW	-3.041206	-2.660973	-3.000114	-2.736645	-2.865770	-2.827004	-2.928017	-2.865676
nBLP	-2.745286	-2.584911	-2.953116	-2.709165	-2.712496	-2.773845	-2.951183	-2.775394