Flu Forecasting Application

1 Week Ahead Calibration

2 Week Ahead Calibration

3 Week Ahead Calibration

4 Week Ahead Calibration

Seasonal Peak Percentage Calibration

Log Scores

Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
BLP -2.790912 -2.367625 -2.733827 -2.530975 -2.526200 -2.410654 -2.560840
cBLP -2.817765 -2.377936 -2.725731 -2.559287 -2.514582 -2.444374 -2.580299
FSNetwork-TW -3.058440 -2.381496 -2.787825 -2.518932 -2.661929 -2.470341 -2.618576
nBLP -2.866347 -2.355575 -2.715417 -2.534816 -2.497912 -2.433698 -2.551861
Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
BLP -2.835144 -2.567359 -3.029395 -2.760507 -2.773858 -2.711629 -2.831470
cBLP -2.808036 -2.605251 -3.044804 -2.832823 -2.762619 -2.728599 -2.872196
FSNetwork-TW -3.076648 -2.547052 -3.069659 -2.796572 -2.898605 -2.774826 -2.889500
nBLP -2.810745 -2.574944 -3.026565 -2.820460 -2.791288 -2.750728 -2.878615
Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
BLP -2.863147 -2.661256 -3.193908 -3.029739 -2.960465 -2.894112 -3.080921
cBLP -2.943293 -2.702322 -3.212473 -2.992904 -2.910497 -2.892193 -3.087676
FSNetwork-TW -3.186217 -2.709807 -3.269844 -2.992455 -3.121525 -2.996243 -3.115137
nBLP -2.923631 -2.704428 -3.185558 -2.997130 -2.946291 -2.902189 -3.090303
Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
BLP -2.940561 -2.828981 -3.342656 -3.081426 -3.044287 -3.026788 -3.196549
cBLP -3.012636 -2.816175 -3.326477 -3.087472 -3.014445 -3.047797 -3.209113
FSNetwork-TW -3.250760 -2.850789 -3.431583 -3.151569 -3.269323 -3.133256 -3.207644
nBLP -2.950294 -2.833083 -3.345369 -3.080071 -3.035638 -3.037302 -3.187011
Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017
BLP -2.216385 -2.349111 -2.516832 -2.201525 -2.396640 -2.832374 -2.862671
cBLP -2.186683 -2.565973 -2.539540 -2.336337 -2.368495 -2.815353 -3.191539
FSNetwork-TW -2.633966 -2.815722 -2.441660 -2.223697 -2.377471 -2.760355 -2.809229
nBLP -2.175411 -2.456526 -2.492673 -2.113347 -2.291349 -2.745310 -3.048124
Model 2010/2011 2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 2016/2017 Average
BLP -2.729230 -2.554866 -2.963324 -2.720834 -2.740290 -2.775111 -2.906490 -2.769870
cBLP -2.753683 -2.613532 -2.969805 -2.761765 -2.714128 -2.785663 -2.988164 -2.797679
FSNetwork-TW -3.041206 -2.660973 -3.000114 -2.736645 -2.865770 -2.827004 -2.928017 -2.865676
nBLP -2.745286 -2.584911 -2.953116 -2.709165 -2.712496 -2.773845 -2.951183 -2.775394